← Whimsy PTM Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Whimsy PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
9-3-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.2%
avg ELO +4.4 per match
expected value
54.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1521
· median 1521
· range 1400–1642
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1072
Q1 1221
Q3 1448
1642
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.4 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Water Umbra Alice | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.5 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
